Table of Contents
Introduction: A Very Different Express Entry in 2025
Express Entry’s second full year of category-based selections looks nothing like the “all-program every two weeks” rhythm we knew up to 2022. Two seismic shifts define 2025:
- Targeted draws now eclipse general rounds. French, health care, trades, STEM and in-Canada classes (CEC, PNP) account for 78 % of all ITAs issued between January 1 and August 10 2025.
- Job-offer points eliminated. As of 25 March 2025 IRCC removed the 50- and 200-point bonuses for valid LMIA job offers to curb fraud.
For many candidates the loss of job-offer points felt like a gut punch, but the actual effect is more nuanced: with everyone else dropping 50–200 points too, relative ranking is largely preserved and median cut-offs are drifting downward by 8–15 points.
How Category-Based Draws Work (and Why They Now Dominate)
Under IRPA s.10.3(1.1) the Immigration Minister may issue annual instructions that select Express Entry profiles on attributes such as occupation group or language. In 2025 six official categories are active:
- French-Language Proficiency
- Healthcare & Social-Services Occupations (Version 2)
- STEM Occupations
- Trade Occupations
- Transport Occupations
- Agriculture & Agri-Food Occupations
Profiles must still meet core program eligibility (FSW, FST, CEC) but ranking is done only among candidates who match the category. IRCC keeps running CEC-only and PNP-only rounds to control inventory of in-Canada applicants and provincial nominees.
The 50-/200-Point Job-Offer Bonus Is Gone—What It Means
Before 25 Mar 2025 | After 25 Mar 2025 |
LMIA job offer (NOC TEER 0,1,2,3) = +50 CRS | 0 points |
LMIA job offer (NOC Major Group 00 senior management) = +200 CRS | 0 points |
Arranged employment still waives proof-of-funds & supports work-permit | Unchanged |
- Why the change? Ministerial fraud-reduction initiative (News release 23 Dec 2024).
- Who is affected? Everyone except those whose ITA was issued before 25 Mar 2025.
- System shock: IRCC auto-recalculated all pool profiles; some dropped out of the top ranks and categories instantly reopened to lower-scoring talent.
2024 vs 2025 Draw Data: Building a Predictive Model
Below we compare median CRS cut-offs before and after the job-offer change using IRCC’s official rounds tables.
Category | 2024 Median CRS | 2025 Pre-Change Median (Jan-24 → 24 Mar) | 2025 Post-Change Median (25 Mar → 8 Aug) | Δ |
French-Language | 400 | 410 | 430 | +20 (pool swelling; more claimants) |
Healthcare & Social | 445 | 510 (V2 launch) | 489 | –21 |
Trade Occupations | 433 | — (no trade draw early 2025) | 435 | +2 |
STEM | 491 | — (no STEM draw yet) | n/a | — |
CEC Only | 509 | 534 | 522 | –12 |
PNP Only | 727 | 793 | 744 | –49* |
*PNP scores remain high because +600 provincial points are still awarded; removal of job-offer points barely shifts the ceiling.
How We Model Cut-Offs
- Input variables: draw size, pool inventory from IRCC Year-End Report 2023, monthly EE pool snapshots, and Immigration Levels Plan admissions caps.
- Adjustment factor for job-offer removal: IRCC disclosed that ~7 % of profiles held job-offer points; their drop reduces global CRS by ~5 points on average (weighted).
- Seasonality: historical Q4 averages show 8–12-point declines in general and CEC draws each year since 2017—except 2020 pandemic pause.
4.1 French-Language Proficiency
- Largest ITA volume (7,500 on 21 Mar 2025) drove cut-off down to 379.
- Post-change smaller draw (2,500 on 8 Aug 2025) rebounded to 481.
- Prediction: two further French draws in Q4; expect 420–455 range as pool refills with new CLB 7 French claimants.
4.2 Health-Care & Social-Services (V2)
- July 22 2025 draw: 4,000 ITAs at CRS 475.
- Smaller 500-ITA “inventory balancing” draws (June 4, May 2) hovered 504–510.
- Prediction: IRCC will meet its 2025 federal-economic healthcare target by another 3,000–4,000 ITAs; expect cut-off 465–485.
4.3 STEM & Trade
- No STEM round yet in 2025; 2024 baseline was 491 for 4,500 ITAs.
- Trades resumed once (Aug 2024 and Oct 2024) at 433–436; expect similar if draw size ≥1,500.
- Prediction: first STEM Q3 draw likely mid-September; cut-off 485–495 (job-offer points were uncommon among STEM profiles).
4.4 Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
- After job-offer removal, cut-offs settled at 518 / 521 / 534 / 547 depending on draw size.
- Pool composition: ~73 % of candidates 1+ year Canadian work experience (Year-End Report 2023).
- Prediction: As Levels Plan shifts emphasis to in-Canada applicants, IRCC must clear inventory. Expect two large Q4 CEC draws of 5,000–7,000 ITAs each at 505–515 CRS.
4.5 Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
- Scores remain >730 because of +600 provincial points.
- Width of gap between PNP and CEC widens, pushing more high-skilled candidates toward PNP streams.
Forecast: Expected Cut-Offs for Q3–Q4 2025
Draw Type | ITAs/projected | Predicted CRS Range |
French-Language | 3,000 × 2 | 420–455 |
Healthcare & Social | 3,500 | 465–485 |
STEM | 4,000 | 485–495 |
Trades | 1,800 | 430–440 |
CEC | 5,000–7,000 × 2 | 505–515 |
PNP | 500–800 per draw | 730–760 |
“Wildcard” General (if any) | 2,000 | 530–540 |
(Assumes minister maintains current immigration caps and no unexpected backlog surges.)
Five High-Impact CRS Boosters Still on the Table
Booster | Average Point Gain | Why It Matters in 2025 |
Max out language → CLB 9/10 | +12–24 core + up to 50 skill-transferability | With job-offer points gone, language is now the easiest controllable lever. |
Second Official Language (French CLB 7) | +50 additional + meets French category | Direct path to French draws with lower cut-offs. |
Educational Credential Assessment upgrade (Bachelor → ECA Master’s) | +15 core + 25 transferability | Still undervalued—fewer than 30 % of FSW candidates hold Master’s ECA. |
One year Canadian work (CEC) | Moves you into CEC pool; median cut-off 30–40 points below general | Eligible for CEC-only draws that IRCC favours to meet “in-Canada focus.” |
Provincial Nomination | +600 | Points inflation-proof; still guarantees an ITA even at CRS 200. |
How Immigration Nation Builds Winning Profiles in 2025
- Category Targeting Audit – We map your NOC against all six 2025 categories plus province-specific tech and healthcare streams.
- CRS Simulation Post-LMIA Removal – Live dashboard recalculates your score without job-offer points and tests up-scenarios (language, education).
- French Fast-Track – Eight-week TEF/TCF boot-camp; 68 % of our clients hit CLB 7+ and qualify for French draws the same calendar year.
- PNP Strategy Matrix – Algorithm ranks provincial pathways by nomination probability and timeline; average issuance for our clients is 5.2 months.
- Document-Ready Filing – Front-loads police certs & medicals so you submit e-APR within 48 hours of ITA—critical as 2025 ITA validity is still 60 days.
FAQ—20 Accuracy-Checked Answers
- Will CRS cut-offs drop now that job-offer points are gone?
Early evidence shows 8–15-point declines in large draws; categories with few LMIA holders (trades, STEM) barely moved. - Does an LMIA still help me?
Yes—for work-permit renewals and arranged-employment eligibility, but 0 CRS points. - Is the job-offer removal temporary?
IRCC labelled it “temporary,” but no expiry date was given (News release 23 Dec 2024). - What about intra-company transferees?
Also 0 points; only Post-March 25 2025 pool entries affected. - Will IRCC add new categories for 2026?
Minister may update annually; watch for “Education” pilot draw result (1 May 2025). - Can I update my profile after sitting TEF?
Yes; CRS recalculates instantly and you enter the French-language sub-pool. - Does the STEM category include tech managers?
Yes—NOC codes 21300, 21231, 21232, etc. - How many ITAs will IRCC issue in 2025?
Roughly 105,000 across all EE classes (Levels Plan + operational leeway). - Is proof of funds still required if I lose my job-offer points?
Yes—unless you have any valid job offer (points or not) or qualify under CEC. - Can PNP still give me +600 if my job offer was LMIA-based?
Yes—PNP points are unaffected by the LMIA rule. - How long will it take IRCC to process after ITA?
80 % within 6 months; health-care and French categories processed faster (~4 months) per departmental plan. Canada.ca - Will lower immigration targets raise CRS?
Possibly in 2026–27; 2025 target still supports large EE intakes. - Do I lose CRS if I switch from FSW to CEC?
Core factors identical; you gain priority for CEC-only draws. - Is NOC 2021 still used?
Yes—Express Entry migrated 16 Nov 2022 and remains on NOC 2021. - Does age 30+ kill my chances?
Losing 5 points per year can be offset by French, CEC experience or PNP. - I have two years Canadian study—worth extra?
Yes—up to 30 points under education + Canadian study. - Will IRCC revive general all-program draws?
Possibly Q4 for inventory balance; last one was April 2024 at CRS 529. - Can I combine sibling points with French?
Yes—each additive (max 755 core + transferability). - Does spouse’s language still add points?
Yes—up to 20 total; powerful after job-offer removal. - Can Immigration Nation file my PNP and EE concurrently?
Absolutely—we synchronize timelines so provincial nomination arrives before the next federal draw cycle.
Conclusion & Call-to-Action
Express Entry 2025 is a two-track race: category draws targeting Canada’s labour gaps and in-Canada pools (CEC, PNP) that IRCC can process quickly. The removal of job-offer points has flattened the CRS landscape, putting renewed emphasis on language, education and provincial nomination. Data show that informed, proactive profiles are still receiving ITAs at historically low cut-offs—if they align with ministerial categories.
Don’t navigate this evolving system alone. Immigration Nation – Immigration Consultant Edmonton translates policy shifts into winning strategies:
Phone: (780) 800-0113 Email: [email protected]